In this article we will discuss about: 1. Introduction to Climate Change 2. Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture 3. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 4. National Plan.
Introduction to Climate Change:
India is highly populated and totally dependent on agriculture for food security. The pressure on natural resources is tremendous. During last hundred years, the temperature raised by 0.51 degrees centigrade and per every ten years an accelerated warming by 0.21 degrees centigrade is expected. Due to temperature rise, cereal production is likely to decrease by 10-40 percent by 2100 with a greater loss in the Rabi crop.
The increase in the temperature has impacted the growth and development of crop plant, coupled with increasing water stress and reduction in rainy days. Western Rajasthan, Southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, North Karnataka, North Andhra Pradesh, Southern Bihar are likely to witness more adverse weather conditions in coming years. For every one degree increase in the temperature, the yield of cereals, pulses, and vegetables is likely to decline by 3-7 per cent. In rice, this decrease is likely to be 6 percent.
Water requirement of the crop may increase due to the warm climate. Rainfall is the key variable in the reduction of yield of rain fed crops due to droughts. Past meteorological records indicate that for every ten years period 3-4 drought years are/ expected. Two or three droughts may be moderate but one may show a severe effect. It is difficult to predict a definite trend from the meteorological data for the drought condition.
Effect of Green House Gases on the Indian Climate:
The main greenhouse gases (GHG) are CO2, CH4, and N2O which are responsible for the rapid change in the climate. Fossil fuel burning and volcanic eruptions add more of these in the atmosphere. The cumulative global CO2 emission from India in the last thirty years is the only 3 percent. This is very small in comparison with developed countries.
The contribution of agriculture to the greenhouse gases is 17 percent due to high use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and the livestock. Enteric fermentation in the livestock is one of the main causes.
Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture:
The impact is more on a regional level as it affects food security adversely. The reduction in food production may be due to shifting in sowing time, the length of growing season which affects harvest time and the change in genetic traits of crop plants. This may affect the cropping system and has to be readjusted.
High evaporation rate due to a warm climate and erratic rainfall results in depletion of soil moisture. Under rain fed conditions, the main yield limiting factor is water availability in the soil. To protect the soil environment and increase crop productivity, efficient management of available water in the arid area is a must. Agriculture sector utilizes 83 percent of the available water. Increase in the surface warming over the Indian subcontinent at the end of this century would result in an increase in pre-monsoonal and monsoonal rainfall which will result in a runoff in central plains.
Thus to overcome this, crop varieties which can use available water and nutrients efficiently from the soil should be grown to increase the production.
Droughts, floods, heat and cold waves are now becoming a part of the changing climate and farmers should be ready to make changes in the cultivation practice of crops like date of planting varieties and the use of organic fertilizers instead of chemicals.
Varieties should be selected which can be readily acclimatized to the changing weather. The changing climate impacts the livestock, pests, disease incidence and deterioration of soil health, affecting the food security adversely. Out of the total geographical area of India, an almost one-sixth area with 12 percent of the population is drought prone.
Usually, this area receives annual rain fall of 60 cm. The irrigation commission had identified 74 districts as drought prone located in 8 states covering an area of 60 m ha. These districts are in arid, semi-arid and sub humid regions with less than average rainfall. Rajasthan is the most droughts prone. Sixty-one percent of Maharashtra and 32 percent of Gujarat falls in the arid zone. Farmers of these states should use available water efficiently and judiciously.
The changing climate will certainly have an effect on the fertilization process in plants. The germination of pollens, the growth of pollen tube to reach the ovule may be adversely affected resulting in less grain formation. This has been noticed in the case of fertilization process of wheat and rice where high temperature reduced pollen tube growth on the stigma. It is also noticed that Aestivum grain quality is adversely affected by increasing temperature during fruit setting.
Yield reduction (0 – 49 percent) was observed in rice when temperature increased to 1-4 degrees centigrade. In other crops; yield reduction with temperature increase was also noticed. Rising temperature and CO2 change insect pest dynamics. However; the climate change could benefit coconut crop. Due to change in temperature, the fruits may have a lot of sugars, acids, tannins, flavonoids, and vitamins.
Elevation of carbon dioxide in the lower atmosphere will impact the climate. Higher CO2 level will have an efficient fertilization process and will produce more biomass and grain yield if water is adequately available in the soil and temperature is congenial. The C3 crops (pulses) give a better response than C4 cereals. It is likely that greater proportion of assimilates are partitioned to the roots than shoot.
Increased CO2 levels reduce days to floral initiation and increase number of female flowers in castor and thus improves seed yield. Moisture, temperature and nutritional stresses affect adversely in pod conversion and retention in pulses. In oilseeds, an increase in oil content was observed with rise in CO2 level.
India ranks first in the world in buffalo and cattle population. This increases our potential for organic farming. A rise of 2-6 degrees centigrade in temperature affects growth and maturation and puberty negatively in buffalo and cattle. Indigenous cattle are more tolerant than the crossbreds. Thus; the increase in temperature will put a question mark for using the high breed cattle.
For utilizing hybrid temperature regulation through atomization is required which is beyond the reach of the majority of the farming community. As lactating cows and buffalos have higher body temperature and are not capable to maintain thermal balance. Regulation of atmospheric temperature through atomization is needed. Thus, to avoid this, the farmers should adopt the low producing local breeds. It is estimated that global warming may result in a loss of 1.6 million tons in milk production by 2020 and 15 million tons in 2050.
A rise in the temperature as small as 1-degree centigrade could have an important and rapid effect on the mortality of fish and their geographic distribution.
Sixty-seven percent of National GDP comes from the agriculture sector. The fluctuation observed in the GDP results due to climatic changes. If the farmers receive proper weather forecast, they can plan the cropping pattern accordingly and this will result in constant and assured income from the produce.
In 1999, a super cyclone struck eastern coast of India. The worst droughts in India recently were of 1972 and 1987 which affected cattle population and ruined crops resulting in no income to the farmers of central India. We had the worst heat wave in 1995 and 1998 linked with El Nino. In 2002 monsoon totally failed. The worst drought was in 1918 which resulted in famine.
In India, we witness four seasons – Winter (Jan-Feb), Pre- monsoon or summer (March – May), summer monsoon (June – Sept) and Post monsoon (Oct- Dec). The climate of India is dominated by summer monsoon. We witness all the vagaries of weather like a cold wave, heat wave, dust storm, tidal wave, tropical cyclones, drought, floods, landslide and heavy rains in localized area due to cloud burst. Droughts were more frequent from 1890 to 1920. During last 125 years, phenomenal droughts were only four – 1877, 1899, 1918, and 1972.
The seasonal rainfall deficiency in these years was more than twenty per cent below the seasonal rainfall average. The frequency of droughts is high in western and central India and Northern peninsula. Management of drought effect by the Government is systematic in recent years. In 1982, the loss due to drought was 5000 crore rupees while in 1987 it was 110 crores due to government timely help to the agriculture sector through disaster management teams. Nearly 40 million hectare land is flood prone and every year 8 million ha land is affected by floods.
Droughts directly damage the crop, degrade the land and deplete the underground reservoirs of water. Malnutrition and starving are the main impacts on the small land holders. The flood destroys entire crop and the population is affected by water borne diseases. During floods, the population starves and water for drinking is totally unavailable. The aerial help is meager. Landslide damages the buildings, roads, and installation.
Most of the warming observed during last 50 years is due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, urbanization, industrialization, increase in automobiles. The human activities have more impact on the meteorological parameters.
Monsoon:
During summers, the southwesterly winds pick up the moisture from Northern Indian Ocean and drop this on the land mass providing summer rainfall critical for the survival of the people and economy. The food grain production in India depends on monsoon onset, duration, and distribution of rainfall and period of break. The mean southern west monsoon (Jun- September) rainfall is 877 mm which is 74 percent of annual rainfall (1182.8 mm).
Monsoon is a stable atmospheric system which never failed totally and fluctuated around 877 mm mean south-west monsoon. The amount, intensity, and distribution of rain in a season are highly variable. This variability results in floods and droughts.
Twenty-five to thirty percent lower rain falls signifies droughts. Jaisalmer has the lowest rainfall (130 mm) while Mawsynram (Meghalaya) has the highest of 11,140 mm. Several factors like sun-earth geometry, conditions in North Atlantic Ocean, snow cover in Eurasia, vegetation change, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribute to rainfall in a given season.
The weather forecasting system uses the following parameters:
1. North-West Europe land surface temperature
2. Equatorial Pacific warm water volume
3. North Atlantic sea surface temperature
4. East Asian mean sea level atmospheric pressure
5. Central Pacific sea surface temperature
6. North Atlantic mean sea level atmospheric pressure
7. North central Pacific winds
Apart from these main factors, several other factors also operate. Dependence of monsoon system is not constant through time. Good predictability is needed for water resource and agriculture. The onset of rainfall, duration, and intensity cannot be predicted accurately. The predictability of monsoon is fifty percent.
In the recent three decades, the seasonal monsoon rainfall over Kerala decreased by six percent. Over central India during the last five decades increase over heavy rainfall events is seen (> 150 mm per day) and reduction in the frequency of low and moderate rainfall days was observed. Recently too extreme abnormal precipitation was seen. On 26 July 2005 Mumbai witnessed very heavy rainfall (944 mm in 24 hours). On the 14th of 17th June, 2013 Kedarnath in Uttarakhand witnessed abnormal rain.
These abnormal patterns are associated with “Global Warming” due to the concentration of greenhouse gases. Global warming can lead to a weakening of South Western monsoon flow and a decrease in rainfall over the Western Ghats. Apart from these, another reason is a rapid warming of sea surface temperature at a rate of 0.5 to 1-degree centigrade during past five decades. The warming is strongest during summer monsoon season.
The other events associated with global warming are:
1. The increase of Global surface temperature for the last 100 years.
2. The recession of mountain glaciers.
3. Rainfall varied greatly in sub-Saharan Africa on the time scales of decades.
4. Precipitation has progressively increased in Russian subcontinent over the last century.
5. A steady increase of cloudiness has been observed in the USA during last fifty years.
El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Influence:
It is a more prominent source of inter-annual variability in weather and climate around the world. ENSO extends to most global tropics. It results in warming of and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Every 3-10 years ENSO event occurs. It has far- reaching climate and economic influence around the world. India is affected by ENSO, like other countries (Indonesia, New Zealand etc.). Over India the occurrence of ENSO and that of many droughts is striking.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Climate Change:
The adaptation process to the climatic condition requires careful planning in agriculture sector which requires long-term investment. The documentation of all cultivation practices by rain-fed farmers following overtime for different crops in different agro-ecological zones of the country is required. Crop research to develop crop varieties adaptable to the changing climate is needed along with cultivation practices. The local germ plasm must be preserved.
In 2010, ICAR launched the National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) project covering strategic research, technology demonstration, and capacity building. Through this program, already existing information on the effect of changing the climate and its relation to the frequency of drought, high temperature, floods and sea water inundation could be compiled. These categories are crop based and resource management based.
Crop based approach includes growing crop and varieties that fit into changed rainfall season. It enables the development of varieties with changed duration, heat stress, drought and submergence tolerance, varieties which respond positively in terms of growth and yield under high CO2. Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiency, coastal salinity tolerant varieties and sea water inundation are needed. Inter cropping is a time tested agriculture practice to cope up with climate variation. If one crop fails, the survived crop my give good returns.
Options for soil, water, and nutrient management are available which contribute to adaptation. Rain-fed agriculture revolves around conservation of soil and rainwater, drought proofing for climate adaptation. In situ moisture conservation, rainwater harvesting and recycling, use of waste water, energy efficiency is important.
Watershed management is now considered an accepted strategy for the development of rain fed agriculture. For example, soil and water conservation works, farm ponds, check dams etc. moderate the runoff and minimize floods during high-intensity rainfall. The plantation of multi-purpose trees in degraded lands helps in carbon sequestration. The crop and soil management practices can be tailored for both, adaptation and mitigation at the landscape level.
Some of the most important adaptation and mitigation approaches with high potential are described below:
1. Rain Water Conservation and Harvesting:
It is important for recycling to rain fed crops. Rain water could be stored in farm ponds which reduce dependence on ground water. India’s farm pond requirement is 50 million. Efficient Utilization of surface and ground water can combat climate change.
2. Zero Tillage:
In irrigated areas, zero tillage has the efficiency to reduce the demand for water in rice wheat cropping system. Zero tillage enhances soil carbon, reduces energy requirement and increases water and nutrient use efficiency. Zero tillage has high potential in high regions of eastern and northern India.
3. Biomass Energy and Waste Recycling:
A large amount of energy is used in cultivation and processing of crops like sugarcane, food grains, vegetable, and fruits. The crop residues can be utilized for energy production. Climate change mitigation can be brought this way by avoiding burning of fossil fuel as the biomass energy is clean.
4. Crop Residue:
Livestock eats most of the crop residues. Through them, the crop residues can be recycled. The crop residues of cotton, caster, pigeon pea, sugarcane can be plowed in the soil which improves physical property of soil and improves water holding a capacity of the soil. For these crops, proper chipping equipment and soil incorporation equipment are to be made ready. Technologies of briquette, anaerobic digestion bio char; vermicomposting exist but are rarely used.
5. Agro Forestry Systems:
Agri silviculture, Silvipasture, agri horticulture offer adaptive and mitigation opportunities. These systems are good buffering for climate variability and reduce atmospheric loads of GHGs.
National Plan for Climate Change:
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh released “First National Plan on Climate change (NAPCC)” on June 30, 2008.The plan outlined existing and future policies and program with a focus on climate mitigation and adaptation. Based on this, a brief paper entitled “India’s Progress In Combating Climate Change” was presented to UNFCCC COP at Lima, Peru in December 2014 by Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change; Government of India identifying eight core national missions.
Following are the eight missions:
1. National Solar Mission
2. National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
3. National Mission on Sustainable Habitat.
4. National Water Mission.
5. National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem.
6. National Mission for a “Green India.”
7. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
8. National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change
The government pledged that India’s per capita GHG emission will at no point exceed that of developed countries despite pursuing development objectives.
The National solar mission aims at development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses to make it competitive with fossil based energy options. The main objective of the Mission for enhanced energy efficiency is to minimize specific energy consumption in industries, to trade energy saving certificates and reduce taxes on energy efficient appliances. The National mission on sustainable habitat is aimed at promoting energy efficiency in urban planning. The incentive to use the public transport system for energy conservation is declared.
The purpose of the National Water Mission is to bring about twenty percent improvements in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem aims at conservation of biodiversity, forest cover, and ecological awareness in Himalaya region. As a result of global warming glaciers which are a source of our water supply is melting and with public awareness, this melting could be minimized.
National Mission for a “Green India” aims at forestation of six million hectares of forest degraded land and expansion of forest cover from 23 percent to 33 percent of India’s territory.
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture aims at supporting climate adaptation in agriculture by developing climate resilient crops, agriculture practices and expansion of weather insurance mechanisms.
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change focuses on the better understanding of climatic science, impacts, and challenges, new climate science research fund, improve climate modeling and increased international collaboration. Through venture capital fund, private sectors are encouraged to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies.
The majority of state governments has prepared State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) consistent with strategies in the NAPCC and is in the process of implementation.
India’s National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) has been accredited as a National Implementing Entity (NIE) for India for the “Adaptation Fund” created under the United Nation Frame Work Convention on Climate Change (NNFCCC). NABARD has generated several feasible projects on climate change adaptation in diverse agro climatic regions and livelihood sections. Several developmental projects to promote sustainable livelihood through Natural Resource Management (NAM) have been implemented by NABARD. It is collaborating with non-government organizations, research institutes, and government departments to conducts workshops and research programs.
The expert group on Low carbon strategies for industrial growth was set by the planning commission in 2010 to suggest low carbon pathways consistent with inclusive growth in India. The final draft submitted in 2014 suggested ways for low carbon strategies as energy efficiencies in household buildings, industry, and transport, low carbon supply techniques such as solar and wind power in power sector, greater use of public transport and non-motorized transport.
India established bilateral relations with several countries on key areas of development and growth, especially environment and clean technology.
India is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change and Government of India has taken right steps to build climate resilient and adaptive means. The government is very serious about shaping climate change response. As it is a consultative process, the participation of all communities, non-government agencies, and industries are invited by the government.